终末期肝病模型评估我国肝硬化患者预后的能力
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林菁华, 文卓夫
肝硬化;预后;模型,林菁华,文卓夫,通讯作者:,Capabilityofend-stageliverdiseasemodelinpredictingth
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林菁华, 文卓夫, 中山大学第三附属医院消化内科 广东省广州市 510630
通讯作者: 文卓夫, 510630, 广东省广州市天河路600号, 中山大学附属第三医院消化内科. wenzfu@163.com
电话: 020-85516867-3082 传真: 020-87536401
收稿日期: 2006-07-11 接受日期: 2006-08-23
Capability of end-stage liver disease model in predicting the prognosis of Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis
Jing-Hua Lin, Zhuo-Fu Wen
Jing-Hua Lin, Zhuo-Fu Wen,Department of Gastroenterology, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China
Correspondence to:Dr. Zhuo-Fu Wen, Department of Gastroenterology, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, 600 Tianhe Road, Guangzhou 510630, Guangdong Province, China. wenzfu@163.com
Received:2006-07-11 Accepted:2006-08-23
Abstract
AIM: To evaluate the capability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting the prognosis of Chinese patients with liver cirrhosis.
METHODS: A cohort of 216 patients with liver cirrhosis were retrospectively studied and followed up. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare MELD, U-MELD (MELD modified by the United Network for Organ Sharing), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and classification in predicting accuracy. MELD score was obtained for each patient according to the modified formula by Kamath. U-MELD score was obtained according to the modified formula by the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS). Nonparametric approach was applied for the comparison of AUC.
RESULTS: The AUC value generated by the ROC curve for MELD was 0.838 at 3 mo, 0.856 at 6 mo and 0.877 at 1 year. MELD was better than CTP classification, and there was significant difference between them. However, there was no significant difference between MELD and CTP score. U-MELD was more accurate than CTP score in predicting the 3-mo prognosis (P = 0.028), while it did not show significant superiority in predicting 6-mo and 1-year prognosis ......
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