Climate change already costs 150 000 lives a year, experts say
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《英国医生杂志》
As the Kyoto protocol came into force last week, UK experts on climate change warned in a study published last week in the Canadian Medical Association's journal that if greenhouse gas emissions were not reduced "the health burdens of climate change are likely to approximately double by 2020, mostly because of increased rates of diarrhoeal disease and malnutrition in low-income countries" ( CMAJ 2005;172: 501-2).
Sari Kovats, a lecturer in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Andrew Haines, director and professor of public health and primary care in the same institution and a reviewer for the panel, wrote that "the modest climate change that occurred between the mid-1970s and the year 2000 is estimated to have caused the annual loss of over 150 000 lives and 5 500 000 disability-adjusted life-years."
But the effects of climate change go beyond the gradual spread of disease, they write. "Extreme events such as floods, droughts and heat waves are likely to increase under global warming and will challenge our ability to manage health risks and test the resilience of our infrastructures in many areas, including health service delivery. In 2003, Europe experienced summer temperatures that were unprecedented in the instrumental record. In France, over 14 000 more deaths were reported during the August heat wave than were typical for that time of year, and the total for Europe was in the region of 20 000. In Paris, the number of deaths increased by 140% over usual figures."
A French undertaker checks coffins during the 2003 heatwave that claimed 14 000 lives across France
Credit: DANIEL JANIN/AFP/GETTY
The authors say there is a clear need to develop and evaluate effective public health interventions for such extreme weather events. But the implication of the French heat wave was that it wasn't just public health officers who were unprepared for such extreme temperatures, but the entire infrastructure.
"It will take many decades to adapt housing to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures in the face of prolonged extreme outdoor temperatures, especially in ways that will not increase energy consumption."
Although governments' commitments to the protocol were not sufficient to tackle climate change, "they form a basis for future, more far-reaching, agreements to promote increases in energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy technologies."(David Spurgeon)
Sari Kovats, a lecturer in the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and Andrew Haines, director and professor of public health and primary care in the same institution and a reviewer for the panel, wrote that "the modest climate change that occurred between the mid-1970s and the year 2000 is estimated to have caused the annual loss of over 150 000 lives and 5 500 000 disability-adjusted life-years."
But the effects of climate change go beyond the gradual spread of disease, they write. "Extreme events such as floods, droughts and heat waves are likely to increase under global warming and will challenge our ability to manage health risks and test the resilience of our infrastructures in many areas, including health service delivery. In 2003, Europe experienced summer temperatures that were unprecedented in the instrumental record. In France, over 14 000 more deaths were reported during the August heat wave than were typical for that time of year, and the total for Europe was in the region of 20 000. In Paris, the number of deaths increased by 140% over usual figures."
A French undertaker checks coffins during the 2003 heatwave that claimed 14 000 lives across France
Credit: DANIEL JANIN/AFP/GETTY
The authors say there is a clear need to develop and evaluate effective public health interventions for such extreme weather events. But the implication of the French heat wave was that it wasn't just public health officers who were unprepared for such extreme temperatures, but the entire infrastructure.
"It will take many decades to adapt housing to maintain comfortable indoor temperatures in the face of prolonged extreme outdoor temperatures, especially in ways that will not increase energy consumption."
Although governments' commitments to the protocol were not sufficient to tackle climate change, "they form a basis for future, more far-reaching, agreements to promote increases in energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy technologies."(David Spurgeon)