进化在感染性疾病应急中的作用
Nature 426, 658 - 661 (11 December 2003); doi:10.1038/nature02104
The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases
RUSTOM ANTIA1, ROLAND R. REGOES1, JACOB C. KOELLA2 & CARL T. BERGSTROM3
1 Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
2 Laboratoire de Parasitologie Evolutive, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75252 Paris, France
3 Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to R.A. (rantia@emory.edu).
It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population1 and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission2. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R0, should exceed one, where R0 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population3. However, an increase in R0, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R0 > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly., http://www.100md.com
The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases
RUSTOM ANTIA1, ROLAND R. REGOES1, JACOB C. KOELLA2 & CARL T. BERGSTROM3
1 Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia 30322, USA
2 Laboratoire de Parasitologie Evolutive, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75252 Paris, France
3 Department of Biology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA
Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to R.A. (rantia@emory.edu).
It is unclear when, where and how novel pathogens such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), monkeypox and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) will cross the barriers that separate their natural reservoirs from human populations and ignite the epidemic spread of novel infectious diseases. New pathogens are believed to emerge from animal reservoirs when ecological changes increase the pathogen's opportunities to enter the human population1 and to generate subsequent human-to-human transmission2. Effective human-to-human transmission requires that the pathogen's basic reproductive number, R0, should exceed one, where R0 is the average number of secondary infections arising from one infected individual in a completely susceptible population3. However, an increase in R0, even when insufficient to generate an epidemic, nonetheless increases the number of subsequently infected individuals. Here we show that, as a consequence of this, the probability of pathogen evolution to R0 > 1 and subsequent disease emergence can increase markedly., http://www.100md.com