关键词: Meta分析;Bayes方法;MCMC模拟;老年痴呆

    摘 要:目的 研究我国老年痴呆患病率及其危险因素. 方法 运用MCMC模拟进行Bayes方法的Meta分析，算法的实现通过WinBUGS软件. 结果 高龄、女性和低文化水平是可能的危险因素. 结论 Meta分析的Bayes模型充分考虑了模型的不确定性，估计更可靠，更合理.

    A Meta analysis of the prevalence of dementia and related risk factor in China:A Bayesian approach

    GUO Xiu-E LIU Li XU Yong-Yong

    1 Department of Health Statistics，Faculty of Pre-ventive Medicine，

    2 Department of Aerospace Clini-cal Medicine，Faculty of Aerospace Medicine，Fourth Military Medical University，Xi'an710033，China

    Keywords:Meta analysis;Bayesian method;MCMC simula-tion;dementia

    Abstract:AIM To study dementia prevalence in China.METHODS Bayesian Meta analysis was made using Win-BUGS implementation of MCMC simulation.RESULTS Results show that old age ......