【摘要】 目的 应用Monte-Carlo模拟进行基于人时的相对危险度的分布估计。 方法 结合实例进行相对危险度的模型构建、拉丁超立方抽样和概率分布的拟合及RR可信区间的几种计算方法比较。 结果 模拟的RR频率分布经拟合符合Pearson5、Lognorm、Gamma和InvGauss4种分布，以Pearson5分布拟合最佳。模拟的RR值95%可信区间结果与统计量函数计算值、Wald法和Score法大致相当，但其上限值和下限值均略小。 结论 应用Monte-Carlo模拟结合拉丁超立方抽样技术，实现了基于人时的相对危险度的分布估计，该方法可应用于更为复杂的参数分布估计。

    【关键词】 危险;队列研究

    Monte-Carlo simulation estimation of rate ratio based on person year

    ZHENG Ying-jie，JIANG Qing-wu，ZHANG Zhi-jie.

    Department of Epidemiology，School of Public Health，Fudan University，Shanghai 200032，China

    【Abstract】 Objective To estimate the distribution of person-year based rate ratio by using Monte-Carlo simulation.Methods According to the example given，rate ratio(RR)model was constructed and simulated with Latin Hypercube Sampling.The sampled frequency distribution was fitted and95%confidence interval of RR was calculated with several methods.Results The simulated RR frequency distribution was fitted good among Pearson5 ......