India versus Pakistan and the power of a six: an analysis of cricket results
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《英国医生杂志》
1 BMJ, 2 Education Resource Centre, Birmingham Women's Health Care NHS Trust, Birmingham
Correspondence to: K Abbasi kabbasi@bmj.com
Introduction
We analysed all 133 matches between 1952 and 2003. There were 47 test matches and 86 one day matches. India won five (11%) test matches and 30 (35%) one day internationals, and Pakistan won nine (19%) and 52 (60%) respectively. The rest were drawn, or abandoned because of bad weather, crowd trouble, or assassination. We grouped matches into time periods 1952-86 (35 test and 17 one day matches) and 1986-2003 (12 test and 69 one day matches) according to our specified time point—Miandad's six. We examined the relation between match results and time periods by cross tabulation and assessed the strength of association (Kendall's rank correlation).
Overall, Pakistan was more likely to win after the hit (correlation coefficient = 0.17, P = 0.03). Venue (home, away, or neutral) was not associated with outcome ( = 0.01, P = 0.82), and neither was winning the toss ( = 0.06, P = 0.44) or batting first ( = 0.04, P = 0.55). In the cumulative win chart, the steep upward slope for one day matches after 1986 highlights the change in fortunes in Pakistan's favour (figure).
Match results according to match type and time period (before and after Miandad's match-winning six). Results presented as 100% stacked bar charts with number of matches included as figures in the stacks. Cumulative win chart sums up the results over time, with an increase by 1 indicating a Pakistan win and a decrease by 1 indicating an Indian win
Comment
Witte DR, Bots ML, Hoes AW, Grobbee DE. Cardiovascular mortality in Dutch men during 1996 European football championship: longitudinal population study. BMJ 2000;321: 1552-4.
Shafqat S, Barucha N. Is cricket the magic glue that unites South Asia? BMJ 2004;328: 843.(Kamran Abbasi, deputy edi)
Correspondence to: K Abbasi kabbasi@bmj.com
Introduction
We analysed all 133 matches between 1952 and 2003. There were 47 test matches and 86 one day matches. India won five (11%) test matches and 30 (35%) one day internationals, and Pakistan won nine (19%) and 52 (60%) respectively. The rest were drawn, or abandoned because of bad weather, crowd trouble, or assassination. We grouped matches into time periods 1952-86 (35 test and 17 one day matches) and 1986-2003 (12 test and 69 one day matches) according to our specified time point—Miandad's six. We examined the relation between match results and time periods by cross tabulation and assessed the strength of association (Kendall's rank correlation).
Overall, Pakistan was more likely to win after the hit (correlation coefficient = 0.17, P = 0.03). Venue (home, away, or neutral) was not associated with outcome ( = 0.01, P = 0.82), and neither was winning the toss ( = 0.06, P = 0.44) or batting first ( = 0.04, P = 0.55). In the cumulative win chart, the steep upward slope for one day matches after 1986 highlights the change in fortunes in Pakistan's favour (figure).
Match results according to match type and time period (before and after Miandad's match-winning six). Results presented as 100% stacked bar charts with number of matches included as figures in the stacks. Cumulative win chart sums up the results over time, with an increase by 1 indicating a Pakistan win and a decrease by 1 indicating an Indian win
Comment
Witte DR, Bots ML, Hoes AW, Grobbee DE. Cardiovascular mortality in Dutch men during 1996 European football championship: longitudinal population study. BMJ 2000;321: 1552-4.
Shafqat S, Barucha N. Is cricket the magic glue that unites South Asia? BMJ 2004;328: 843.(Kamran Abbasi, deputy edi)