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Day care in infancy and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemi
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     1 Cancer Research UK Epidemiology and Genetics Unit, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton SM2 5NG, 2 Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, 3 Leukaemia Research Fund Epidemiology and Genetics Unit, Department ofHealth Sciences, University of York, York YO10 5DD, 4 Academic Unit of Paediatric Oncology, Christie Hospital and Central Manchester and Manchester Children's University Hospitals NHS Trusts, Manchester M20 4BX, 5 Section of Haemato Oncology, Institute of Cancer Research, London SW3 6JB, 6 Public Health Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9AG

    Correspondence to: T O B Eden tim.eden@manchester.ac.uk

    Objective To test the hypothesis that reduced exposure to common infections in the first year of life increases the risk of developing acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

    Design and setting The United Kingdom childhood cancer study (UKCCS) is a large population based case-control study of childhood cancer across 10 regions of the UK.

    Participants 6305 children (aged 2-14 years) without cancer; 3140 children with cancer (diagnosed 1991-6), of whom 1286 had acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL).

    Main outcome measure Day care and social activity during the first year of life were used as proxies for potential exposure to infection in infancy.

    Results Increasing levels of social activity were associated with consistent reductions in risk of ALL; a dose-response trend was seen. When children whose mothers reported no regular activity outside the family were used as the reference group, odds ratios for increasing levels of activity were 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.62 to 0.87) for any social activity, 0.62 (0.51 to 0.75) for regular day care outside the home, and 0.48 (0.37 to 0.62) for formal day care (attendance at facility with at least four children at least twice a week) (P value for trend < 0.001). Although not as striking, results for non-ALL malignancies showed a similar pattern (P value for trend < 0.001). When children with non-ALL malignancies were taken as the reference group, a significant protective effect for ALL was seen only for formal day care (odds ratio = 0.69, 0.51 to 0.93; P = 0.02). Similar results were obtained for B cell precursor common ALL and other subgroups, as well as for cases diagnosed above and below age 5 years.

    Conclusion These results support the hypothesis that reduced exposure to infection in the first few months of life increases the risk of developing acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

    The idea that infections are involved in the aetiology of childhood leukaemia dates back to the 1940s.1 Two key papers appeared in 1988. Greaves proposed that a deficit of exposure to infectious agents in infancy and subsequent "delayed" infectious challenge were causal factors in the development of B cell precursor common acute lymphoblastic leukaemia,2 which is responsible for the childhood peak of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) at age 2-5 years.3 4 Kinlen proposed that population influx into isolated communities (population mixing) could generate excesses of childhood leukaemia by causing mini-epidemics of one or more infections to which leukaemia may be a rare response.5 The UK childhood cancer study (UKCCS), a large population based case-control study,6 was designed to test several hypotheses, one of which was that leukaemias and lymphomas may be caused by abnormal responses to common infectious agents. Here, we focus on Greaves's hypothesis that immunological isolation in infancy increases the risk of B cell precursor common ALL (cALL). No single protective agent or transmission pathway has been identified, so proxy variables for exposure to infection must be used. The literature on infectious illnesses occurring in day care settings suggests that social interactions with other children outside the home may be important.7-9 Several studies of childhood leukaemia have used such proxies.10-19

    Precise molecular subclassification of cALL is potentially important for these analyses. The two largest subgroups are those with hyperdiploidy (hyperdiploid ALL) and with fusion of the TEL and AML1 genes (TEL-AML1 ALL). Most (possibly all) children with these lesions have affected clones present at the time of birth,20 21 so initiation usually occurs in utero. However, the modest level of concordance in identical twins with one affected by cALL (approximately 10%), together with the much greater frequency of these lesions in cord blood than the lifetime risk of the cALL subtype,22 indicates that at least one postnatal event also occurs in the development of cALL. Greaves's original hypothesis relates to the promotional factors that affect the frequency of this second event.

    The UKCCS included all childhood cancers.6 In this paper we compare social activity of cases and controls during the first year of life for ALL and subgroups of ALL. We also compare ALL with non-ALL malignancies. We excluded children aged under 2 years at the time of diagnosis (cases) or pseudodiagnosis (controls) in order to avoid both dilution of results through overlap for younger children of the two time windows in which associations in opposite directions are predicted and the potential for early symptoms of leukaemia to influence attendance at day care.

    Participants

    This case-control study was conducted in 10 regions across the United Kingdom between 1991 and 1996. The UKCCS study design, data collection and consenting procedures, ethical approvals, and participation rates are described in detail elsewhere.6 23 Briefly, children diagnosed as having a confirmed malignancy were ascertained through paediatric oncology units, and two controls matched to each case for sex, month and year of birth, and region of residence at diagnosis were randomly selected from population registers. Age at diagnosis of the case was designated as the age at "pseudodiagnosis" of the matched control. A structured questionnaire was used to interview parents of 3838 cases and 7629 controls face to face. Questions about social activity focused on activity with other infants and children, and included information on the number of sessions a week and the number of children attending for specific activities before starting school.

    Exposure variables

    We defined "social activity" as regular activity (at least once a week) with other infants who were not members of the same household. We defined "day care" as attendance (at least once a week) at a day nursery, nursery school, play group, mother and toddler group, or childminder. We defined "formal day care" as any attendance at a day nursery or nursery school, at least two half day sessions a week at a playgroup or mother and toddler group, or at least two half day sessions a week at a childminder with a minimum of four children attending. We used a hierarchical variable based on these three exposures (social activity, day care, and formal day care) as an overall measure of social activity in the first year of life.

    Statistical analysis

    We excluded children given a diagnosis or pseudodiagnosis before the age of 2 years (649 cases and 1320 controls), as well as children with Down's syndrome (49 cases and 4 controls), which left 9445 eligible children (3140 cases and 6305 controls) (table 1). We analysed data for all cancers combined and separately for ALL, cALL, TEL-AML1 ALL, hyperdiploid ALL, and non-ALL malignancies. To increase precision, we compared each case subgroup with all controls. We also did a case-case comparison of ALL and cALL versus non-ALL malignancies. We used unconditional logistic regression procedures in Stata version 7 to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.24 We used likelihood ratio tests to assess associations. We assessed trends across the combined hierarchical variable by treating it as a continuous variable.

    Table 1 Numbers of cases and controls overall (aged 2-14 years) and aged 2-5 at diagnosis or pseudodiagnosis

    Results

    Most (86%) mothers of controls reported some social activity with children outside the family in the first year of life (table 2). Any such activity was associated with a reduced risk of ALL (odds ratio = 0.66; P < 0.001). The risk ratios for cALL alone and for the cytogenetic subgroups TEL-AML1 and hyperdiploidy were similarly reduced. Analyses of non-ALL malignancies combined gave a similar result; the only individually statistically significantly reduced risk was for the largest group—central nervous system tumours. With respect to the case-case comparison (ALL v non-ALL malignancies), the dichotomous variable "any social activity" was not significantly reduced. Analyses restricted to 2-5 year olds produced similar results (table 2), but we found no evidence that the association was stronger in the childhood peak (2-5 years) than at older ages.

    Table 2 Levels of social activity in the first year of life for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), ALL subgroups, and non-ALL malignancies

    Each category of malignancy showed a significant inverse trend as level of social activity increased (table 2). The statistically significant trend (P = 0.04) for the comparison of ALL with non-ALL malignancies (right hand column) is due largely to the reduced odds ratio for formal day care (odds ratio = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.93). Analyses restricted to cases aged 2-5 years gave similar results, although statistical significance was reduced.

    The proportion of children who had an older sibling living in the home at the time of birth was similar for ALL (56%), cALL (54%), non-ALL malignancies (57%), and controls (57%), and we observed no significant trends with numbers of older siblings in any diagnostic group (table 3). As any relation between social activity and ALL might be expected to be more marked among children born into households without other children, we repeated the analyses in table 2 for children with and without older siblings. The odds ratio for formal day care was 0.61 (0.42 to 0.87) for ALL in children without older siblings and 0.38 (0.26 to 0.54) for those with older siblings, a non-significant difference in the opposite direction to that anticipated.

    Table 3 Number of older children in household ("siblings") at time of index birth for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), ALL subgroups, and non-ALL malignancies

    Estimated risks for children starting day care in the first year of life showed no marked trends with age at first attendance (table 4). The greatest reduction in risk of ALL, however, was seen in children who attended formal day care during the first three months of life, for whom the odds ratio remained statistically significant when we used non-ALL malignancies as the reference group (odds ratio = 0.52, 0.32 to 0.83; P = 0.007).

    Table 4 Effect of age at first day care during the first year of life for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and non-ALL malignancies

    Discussion

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