零碎时间投资法目录

    作者简介

    译者简介

    重要概念

    五分钟摘要

    胜过大盘1 了解投资的根基

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    胜过大盘2 认识投资的主要标的

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    胜过大盘3 建立必胜的投资组合

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    胜过大盘4 每3个月，花1个钟头的时间重新调整投资组合

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维

    胜过大盘5 终其一生，不断重复上述循环

    主要观念

    支持概念

    关键思维MAIN IDEA

    Beating the Market 1 Understand the Bedrocks of Investing

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    Beating the Market 2 Get to Know the Components

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    Beating the Market 3 Set up Your Own Definitive Winning Investment

    Portfolio

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    Beating the Market 4 Every Three Months, Take an Hour to Rebalance

    Your Portfolio

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts

    Beating the Market 5 Repeat this Cycle over and over for Life

    Main Idea

    Supporting Ideas

    Key Thoughts作者简介

    杰若德·艾培尔马文·艾培尔(Gerald Appel Marvin Appel)

    杰若德·艾培尔是投资快报《系统与预测》(Systems and

    Forecasts)发行人，也是Signalert投顾公司创办人，该公司所管理的客

    户总资产超过3亿美元。杰若德出版过多本关于投资策略的著作，包括

    《技术分析》(Technical Analysis)、《时时都是好时机》

    (Opportunity Investing)以及《超越大盘》(Winning Market

    Systems)。

    马文·艾培尔是艾培尔资产管理公司(Appel Asset Management

    Corporation)的执行长以及Signalert投顾公司副总裁，被视为全球选评

    指数型股票基金的顶尖专家，现为《系统与预测》编辑，并著有《轻松

    投资ETF》(Investing with Exchange Traded Funds Made Easy)，文章

    散见于CNNfn、CNBC、Forbes.com及CBS Marketwatch.com等财经新闻

    网。译者简介

    林文祥

    美国俄亥俄州艾克隆大学(The University of Akron, Ohio)艺术行

    政硕士，中国文化大学广告系毕业，曾从事广告文案企划工作，并于旧

    金山探索科学博物馆(Exploratorium)，担任募款与会员活动总执行6

    年，现于专业美语机构从事教学工作。重要概念

    定期调整投资组合

    (Periodically Rebalance Portfolio)

    投资要成功不只是追求更高的投资报酬率，控制投资风险往往才是

    关键。如果能在投资组合中加入相关系数更低的风险资产，或重新调整

    投资分配比例，对整体的投资组合会更有利。决定资产配置需要充分考

    虑投资目标和风险承受能力，而再平衡(Rebalancing)则是一种纪律化

    的策略。当整体投资部位的分配情形比原先设定的配置比例过高或过低

    时就应做修正，并且随着市场的变化进行调整，透过卖高买低的风险管

    理机制让资产组合在每段时间都能发挥最佳的效益。定期调整的用意是

    让投资组合回复到原先所设定的投资分配比例，以符合当初所愿意承担

    的投资风险。所以就算是这样做可能会比买进并持有的方式得到较低的

    投资报酬率，但是控制投资风险往往才是投资获利的成功关键。

    债券梯(Bond Ladder)

    债券和股票的连动性低，因此债券常是资产配置中不可或缺的一

    块。而最简单操作的债券组合方式，就是债券梯。建构债券梯首先要决

    定时间的长度，假设时间设定为5年，购买5张债券，到期日依序分别是

    1到5年之后，而投入的金额就平均分配给5张债券。如此一来，债券梯

    就可以形成一个长期的投资部位。每年要买进新债券的金额，也可以视

    当时资产配置的状况做增减。因为可以分摊并减低利率风险，债券梯总

    是可以处于有利位置。债券梯的另一个概念是为了满足投资人对于现金赎回的要求，而将

    资金分散在不同到期日的债券标的的投资策略。如果投资人将所有的资

    金锁定在同一种债券上，若有短期现金的需求或是短期的利率变动，都

    将无法做出最恰当的调整。而投资人将资金分散在不同到期日的债券，不仅能用来分散现金需求的风险，随时根据现金部位的需求做调整，以

    备不时之需，还可以根据债券的配息，得到有保证的收益。

    在线财经服务(Finance Website)

    MSN Money Central网站上的Portfolio Review的特色是能对用户所

    持股票，以许多面向来提供清楚的检视画面。这些面向包括风险与资产

    配置。在Performance段中，使用者能了解到在过去不同的时期，哪些投

    资表现最佳。Portfolio Manager软件能提供各种不同标准来追踪多种类

    型的证券表现，包括跨越好几个不同时期的投资回报率。同时也具备许

    多其它功能，包括自动计算股票分割后的价值、货币兑换汇率、多重进

    出记录监测、股价数据数据分析，以及计算内部报酬率等。

    Yahoo Finance除了可以获取一般财经网站都有的讯息，还连结股票

    搜寻、退休计划、债券、选择权，以及可供下载的理财电子表格。

    Yahoo网站的讯息以图型(icon)设计，让使用者可清楚点选所需的服

    务并可迅速连结到其它网站，方便使用者逐步深入所需要的数据。

    Yahoo Finance的股票报价更附有股市行情指示器(quote tickers)，上

    网者可登记使用有价证券管理工具(portfolio-management tools)。另

    外，更具有连结到大量的财经数据网，以提供货币转换计价、市场行情

    分析和时事评论等。五分钟摘要英文

    投资就要机敏、主动，才会成功。与其将所有资金都交由理财规划

    师去操作，或是全部投资于共同基金然后听天由命，不如当个自立自强

    的投资人。这么做有许多好处：

    自己的投资会有更好的绩效——因为不用付出大笔管理费。

    可以避免资金经理人可能存在的各种利益冲突。

    投资时机的安全与否操之在己——资金经理人绝对无法做到这一

    点。

    可以避免资金经理人的偏心，他们会优先照顾大户，把其它人摆在

    其次。

    总之，没有其它任何方法能够胜过亲自操作的投资方式。要真正做

    到这点，关键其实相当简单：「你将要学到的策略是经过完善研究的，即使这套策略在应用

    上不需花太多时间(通常每3个月只需不到1小时)，还是能够显著

    拉高你的投资报酬，同时降低『买进、期望、持有』所带来的风

    险。只要你能谨守投资纪律、投入一定的时间在投资计划中，并且

    体会决策的乐趣而不是为此提心吊胆，就会发现资金长期下来的成

    长其实相当令人满意。同时你也会感到满足的是，了解到自己多年

    操作下来，为个人与家庭达成的投资成果。」

    ——杰若德马文胜过大盘1 了解投资的根基 英文

    主要观念

    管理自己的投资组合，并不像专业资金经理人所说的那么困难，他

    们刻意让这个工作看来只有受过训练的专家才能胜任，但事实上，只要

    持续关注并且愿意下功夫研究，管理自己的投资组合对任何人而言，都

    是一件合理与可行的事。支持概念

    理想的投资组合并不是像一般认定的那样一成不变，反而是要因应

    整体投资趋势变化而有所变通、调整与因应。要成为自立自强的投资

    人，只须对下列几项基础原则有所认识，分别是：

    1 分散投资

    简单来说就是建构投资组合时，应该要把投资分散在不同的经济范

    畴，不要过度集中于特定市场。透过分散投资，才会拥有风险报酬模式

    各不相同的多样投资标的。理想而言，不论整体经济表现如何，在任何

    时候，投资组合中至少会有一部分的绩效良好。分散投资能够降低投资

    人的风险。

    要设法让投资组合分散于许多不同面向，可以试着在下列选项间做

    选择：

    股票和债券

    大型股和小型股

    不同类型债券

    收入型股票和成长股

    不同产业的股票

    大宗物资的进出

    其中最后一项的大宗物资，尤其值得注意。许多人会投资黄金、原

    油、工业原料、食物和农产品等大宗物资，抵销高度通货膨胀造成的损

    失。大宗物资在高度通膨或经济不稳定的时候，价值通常会攀升，所以

    配置一小部分大宗物资应该是很合理的。2 风险承受度

    根据经验法则，以创造稳定收入为主的投资，比起投资于股市的风

    险要低得多。投机性或高风险的投资之所以能够分得较高的股利，就是

    因为必须承担更高的风险。共同基金的风险有可能高、可能低，端视所

    投资的基金或股票类型而定。

    要成为成功的投资人，就必须了解并考虑到自己的风险承受度。个

    人的风险承受度会因为处于生命中不同阶段而有所不同：

    年轻时大概比较敢于接受较高的风险，以期能够产生较高的投资报

    酬率。你会想自己还有很长时间可以赚钱，就能弥补任何可能遭受

    的损失。

    随着时间过去，因为资产规模的成长，应该会想要降低风险。

    即将退休时，投资组合能否产生稳定可靠的收入，会变得极为重

    要，到了这时候就会偏重避险。

    3 平衡配置

    投资组合必须「调整配置」，也就是说必须想到在自己的投资组合

    中，以下部位各要占多少比例：

    产生一份收入(债息与股利)

    创造资本收益(股票与债券部位)

    那么，你要建立与管理个人投资组合的目标何在？以下原因是可以

    想见的：

    大多数投资人通常会发现自己最后是按下列比例配置，而这个配置

    方式可以当作你开始建立投资组合的参考：关键思维

    「作为投资人的首要目标，就在于累积一定的资金，足以支付

    一辈子的生活开支，尤其是在晚年，当你不再有工作收入，或者至

    少收入减低的时候。精明投资法可以帮助你达成这个目标，通常这

    就要靠把投资组合分散、分散再分散，然后还有投资组合的配置。

    分散投资有助于降低风险，但即便如此，还是应该随时做好准备，快速退出绩效不如预期的部位。一般而言，认赔要愈早愈好。」

    杰若德马文胜过大盘2 认识投资的主要标的 英文

    主要观念

    任何投资组合的基本构件有二，一种是希望能随时间增值的标的，一种是能够在持有期间内持续带来收入的标的。几个世代以来，股票与

    债券为长期型投资人带来了财富与收入，自然也会是你投资组合中非常

    重要的一部分。想要从目前的财务状况，发展到自己所期待的未来，必

    须靠明智的导游，而只要累积些许经验，你就可以成为自己最好的导游支持概念

    股票

    整个股市大致可以分为以下7或8大类股：

    1. 金融业——保险、银行以及证券商等相关产业，金融类股的绩效与

    标准普尔500指数等大盘指数同步。

    2. 公用事业——通常股利较高，而股价会随能源价格同步涨跌。

    3. 不动产投资信托(REITs)——绩效通常与金融类股相当。

    4. 能源——产油业者、开采业者、输送业者、炼油业者与产煤业者

    等，通常在通膨较高或国际情势紧张时，绩效会跟着上扬。

    5. 原物料——金矿、银矿、木材与矿物等。同样地，原物料类股通常

    在通膨压力高涨时绩效最佳。

    6. 美国小型股——有时候绩效甚至胜过大型股。

    7. 海外股——涨跌的时间可能与美国股市不同。

    8. 海外小型股——在美元贬值时，绩效可以胜过美国小型股。

    管理自己投资组合的基本原则之一，就是要定期找出哪些类股的力道强劲，然后把你投资的最大部位配置于力道最强的类股。另一种方

    式，是把你在股市的所有投资平均配置于上述8大类股当中，这种组合

    方式在任何经济状况下都能产生不错的绩效。

    即使是以平均投资8大类股的组合作为起步，仍然需要有某种均衡

    调整的机制。其中一项不错的策略是，只要某个部位的涨幅超过所配置

    资金的10%，就要脱手；只要某个部位的资产价值跌幅超越原先配置资

    金的10%，就要加码。这么做你才能够「逢高卖出」，而不会像一般大

    众一样想「逢高买进」。同时你也要「逢低承接」，而这通常表示你能

    够在景气回春、某些类股再度变得抢手之前，先低价买进。

    要投资股票，有下列2种聪明的方法：

    共同基金这种投资工具，是让投资人汇集资金，聘请专业的基金经

    理人来操作。不同的基金有不同的绩效目标，而且重点投资的标的

    也不同。免佣基金所指的是在买卖时，不用付手续费。投资基金可

    以立刻得到由各种股票组成的投资组合，但是美中不足之处在于，管理费会使你预期的收益减损。有些共同基金称为指数型基金，因

    为这类基金的投资组合是追踪特定市场的指数，像是标准普尔500

    指数(追踪美国大型企业)或是罗素2000指数(追踪美国小型企

    业)。要了解各档共同基金过去的绩效，可上网参考以下网站：

    www.morningstar.com

    www.moneycentral.msn.com(点选Fund Research)

    指数股票型基金(ETF)是上市的共同基金，不是由专业的基金经

    理人操作，而是在反映几大股票指数(例如道琼平均工业指数或那

    斯达克综合股价指数)或是特定的稳健投资形式(像是高息股、成

    长科技股与医疗保健业的投资标的等)。要追踪美国各档ETF的绩

    效，可以参考以下网站：www.etfconnect.com

    www.price-data.com

    市面上充斥各种共同基金、指数型基金与指数型股票基金，很容易

    让人陷入各种细节，因而忽略了这些不同的投资工具重点，应该加以善

    用来创造财富。要想拨云见日，在投资股市时可以善用下列2大经验法

    则：

    1. 分散投资——买进并持有和下列标的有关的共同基金或ETF：

    美国大型股

    美国小型股

    拥有房地产之企业的股票，如REITs

    债券基金

    海外基金

    2. 每3个月重新调整投资组合——选出上一季绩效最佳的共同基金或

    ETF，保留在下一季的投资组合里。只要持之以恒这样做，就能让

    自己搭上市场潮流的便车。债券

    大多数投资计划往往都忽略了债券，但这可能会有问题。债券在投

    资计划中扮演着相当重要的角色，其原因如下：

    债券能够带来可靠的收入来源。

    债券可用来分散你可能要投资于股票、大宗物资或不动产的资金，借以提升财务的稳定度。

    如果购买债券，你事先就能确知这项投资会产生的收入，因此可以

    更完善地规划人生。

    慎选债券标的，你就能够很有把握地控制风险程度。

    有时债券能产生的报酬甚至接近股市，而且风险低得多。

    如果投资特定债券，美国政府会保证让报酬超过通膨幅度，这一点

    相当吸引人。

    要学会投资债券，首先必须对债券的语言与术语有所认识：

    债券是债权人(投资人)借给债务人(称为发行人)的款项。

    如果一家公司要发行1,000美元的债券，会明列公司将给付的利

    率，称做「息票」。

    你在借贷期间会按息票利率收到利息，然后在借贷终止时可以取回

    原本的1,000美元。这1,000美元称之为「平价」或「面值」。

    在财经媒体上，债券价格的单位是「点」，每1点代表10美元。因

    此，100点表示债券价格为1,000美元。

    债券的发行期限称为「到期日」，债券发行的到期日可以从90日以

    下，一路到30年以上。根据经验法则，债券的到期日愈短愈安全。

    债券的重点在于，不论金融市场中发生什么状况，债券都会支付固定的息票。这也表示，当利率攀升的时候，已流通债券与债券共同基金

    的价值就会下跌，因为钱可以投资于其它利率较高的标的。相对地，当

    利率下降时，债券所产生的报酬价值就更高，这就是造成市场上债券价

    值波动的原因。

    持有债券的2项潜在获利来源为：

    1. 利息收入——通常以半年为期分2次给付，而不是一次给付全年的

    利息。

    2. 资本利得或损失——买进价格与到期日面值的价差，面值通常为

    1,000美元。

    这两项因素合并所产生的整体报酬，称之为「到期殖利率」。当财

    经媒体报导利率在攀升，就表示已流通债券的到期殖利率以及新发行债

    券的息票都在上扬。利率攀升会导致已流通债券的价格下跌，而利率下

    降则会带动已流通债券价格的上扬。

    错开所投资债券的到期日，是抵销或减低利率风险的方法之一。

    设定这种错开的投资组合(也就是所谓的「债券梯」)，无论利率

    走势如何变化，都能处于有利的地位。当其中15的债券每隔2年期满

    时，可以将收益再度投资于10年期债券，赚取当时10年期债券的息票利

    率，因为这种债券通常不论何时都能提供最高的收益。以债券梯投资法

    代表不用预期到时息票利率会是多少，而是能够因为投资组合中有一部

    分每2年就到期，自然而然善用利率涨跌。

    另外要注意的是，债券通常会以是否为「投资等级」来分。投资等

    级债券的信用评等要高过其它类型，违约的风险也非常低，大多数的美

    国债券市场都是以投资等级债券为主。例外的是那些由信用风险较高的贷方所发行的债券，这些债券通常会给予较高的收益率，以弥补其较高

    的风险，因此也经常被称为「垃圾债券」或直接叫做「高收益债券」。

    除了总是引起高度注意与议论的垃圾债券之外，市场上还有许多其

    它类型的债券，包括：

    高收益债券基金——投资一系列低投资等级的债券。其中有部分债

    券到最后可能会违约，但是能继续运作并履约的债券可能支付高额

    收益，使基金能够为投资人带来高于一般报酬的收益。

    银行浮息贷款债券基金——根据银行以可调整利率提供给企业的贷

    款而发行的债券。因为银行有权调升或降低贷款利息，所以不会有

    通常伴随债券出现的利率风险。事实上，当利率攀升时，这类基金

    的价值就会因为利率收入增加而上升，这种债券的利率风险通常也

    较低。

    通胀保值债券——一般称之为抗通膨债券(TIPS)。这些美国国库

    发行的债券每6个月会重订一次利率，使其等同于通货膨胀率加上

    固定比例。收入中固定给付的部分，每6个月为期以息票给付。债

    券的本金是1,000美元起，然后依据发行后的通货膨胀幅度加以调

    整，也就是说息票的部分会随着通膨而上升。

    免税债券——由美国各州政府或地方政府发行，所付的利息不纳入

    联邦所得税的课征范围，在某些情况之下甚至连州所得税都不必

    付。这对课税级距较高的投资人而言是相当有吸引力的选择，而对

    课税级距较低的人来说好处就比较少。关键思维

    「股票一向都会成长，因此成为最佳的长期投资标的之一。对

    于没时间或不愿意花太多时间研究各家公司的散户(大多数人都属

    于这类)而言，经过精挑细选的共同基金与指数型股票基金，因为

    可以分散投资而且交易成本可能较低，可说是投入股市的理想工

    具。」

    「创造财富不是要让人觉得自己厉害，是要有条理地管理投资

    组合、敢于采取反向操作的投资策略，并且保持情感与投资组合的

    平衡。」

    「在股市所可能犯的最大错误，就是造成了自己无法承担的损

    失。当投资资金损失了50%，剩下的资金就必须要创造100%的报

    酬率才能刚好打平。只要损失了25%，就要33%的报酬率才能打

    平。除非你才刚开始要累积资金，并且完全有办法、也愿意去接受

    相关风险，否则在仔细评估潜在损失可能造成的影响之前，不要贸

    然投资。」

    杰若德马文胜过大盘3 建立必胜的投资组合 英文

    主要观念

    对于投资的基本观念有所认识之后，便可以自己判断投资组合中哪

    些标的应该纳入、哪些应该排除。理想的投资组合一定会具备以下几项

    主要特征：

    配置平衡。

    具备明确的进场与退场策略。

    风险降低至自己可以因应的程度。

    有高获利潜力。支持概念

    首先请参考以下图标投资组合的建构方式，作为我们讨论必胜投资

    组合的起点：以下逐项讨论各个部位：海外股票通常会带来最佳的投报率，但风险也较高。将投资于股票

    市场的资本分配25%在海外ETF，另外分配75%于美国国内ETF，就能

    在风险与报酬当中取得最佳的平衡。

    可以考虑投资的3档海外ETF为：

    埃雪MSCI新兴市场指数基金(EEM)

    埃雪MSCI日本指数基金(EWJ)

    埃雪欧洲350指数基金(IEV)

    从上述3档基金当中，选择上一季报酬最佳的一档，然后将18.75%

    的投资资金配置于这文件ETF，作为必胜投资组合的起点。

    要选择美国国内ETF，可以观察涵盖了5种主要投资风格的5档

    ETF：

    埃雪S P 600价值指数(IJS)——小型价值股

    埃雪S P 600成长指数ETF(IJT)——小型成长股

    埃雪罗素1000价值ETF(IWD)——大型价值股埃雪罗素1000成长ETF(IWF)——大型成长股

    埃雪MSCI欧澳远东ETF(EAF)——大型海外股

    同样地，评量上述ETF过去3个月的绩效，然后从中选出获利最高

    (或者如果目前市场处于跌势，相对损失最低)的2档。所选出2档ETF

    中，每一档都应该占整体投资组合的28.125%。

    投资组合中的债券部位，要投资2种标的，一种是投资等级债券

    ETF，另一种则是高收益债券ETF。

    在投资等级债券的部位，可以比较各档低管理费的债市指数基金的

    相对绩效：

    埃雪雷曼综合公债ETF(AGG)

    先锋债市指数基金(VBMFX)

    要找到合适的高收益债券基金，可以请教券商，他们会提出许多选

    择供你考虑。只要确定你所选的是免佣基金，而且管理费低、长期绩效

    杰出即可。作为投资人，可以善用因特网上的各种资源。以美国而言，这些资

    源包括：

    MSN Money——www.moneycentral.msn.com

    只要到这个网站的投资分析网页，就可以追踪ETF与共同基金季初

    和季末的价格。

    埃雪官方网站——www.ishares.com

    在这里可以找到各文件ETF的配息纪录与绩效图。

    Yahoo Finance——www.finance.yahoo.com

    从这个网站可以依照自己指定的日期，下载各文件ETF和股票的电

    子表格数据，另外也可以指明要自动更新数据，以反映股利和股票分割

    的状况。

    ETF Connect——www.etfconnect.com

    包括封闭型共同基金与指数ETF的价格和相关信息。

    Price-Data——www.price-data.com

    必须先订阅，提供所有ETF的目前价格和代号。

    XTF——www.xtf.com

    要了解各档ETF的排名以及过去绩效的数据，这个网站的资源极为

    丰富。

    经济学家罗伯·席勒的网站——www.irrationalexuberance.com

    包含股市过去的数据以及通膨和房价的数据，数据可以下载。

    必胜投资组合具有以下几大特色：■配置平衡

    让你的财务安全不会完全押在特定个股上，或是集中于有限的投资

    类型之中，反而能够在多个市场上建构起广泛的投资基础。从过去的数

    据来看，采取7525的配置方式，将资金分别配置于能够创造成长的股

    市，以及可以产生收入的债市，的确是最理想的组合。

    ■具备明确的进场与退场策略

    你的投资计划可以借由买进ETF随时展开，ETF不用付申购手续费

    和赎回手续费，而且几乎不必付管理费。在买进或卖出的时候，会如同

    买卖公司股票一样，要付交易手续费，然而大多数券商都提供「全年吃

    到饱」的收费方式，只要付费1次，就能在1年内不限次数交易，不必付

    额外费用。退场策略永远都一样，只要在投资标的的价值涨跌幅超过

    10%时，就要脱手。

    ■风险降低至自己可以因应的程度

    ETF是经过平衡配置的投资组合，因此能够大大降低风险，而且不

    必想办法挑选出比其它支股票更快增值的个股。ETF不是由基金经理人

    主动式管理，标的是各大指数或特定的投资风格。将投资配置于大量不

    同股票中，风险便可因此抵销或尽可能减至最低。

    ■高获利潜力

    几个世代以来，股票为长期型投资人带来了财富，在1926年至2006

    年的80年间，股市的市值平均每年成长约10%，年成长率比通货膨胀率

    高出7%。股市市值的成长，同时也大幅超越了房地产。无可否认地，如果分别去看某几年，股市的确会有波动起伏，但是投资股市的长期获利潜力是绝对禁得起考验的。我们建议投资整个股市而非个股的另外一

    个原因是，想要准确预测任何一支个股的表现是不可能的事。

    值得注意的是，除了ETF之外，指数基金也是另一项投资的选择。

    指数基金是一种共同基金，其投资组合反映的是特定的市场指数。因为

    指数基金的标的十分明显，所以操作上不需要靠任何人去管理或研究，因此这种基金的费用非常低，和主动式管理的共同基金相比之下更是如

    此。对于想要以低成本将资金投入股市的投资人而言，指数基金是一项

    极佳的选择。指数基金的最大缺点在于，会限制卖出与买回的次数。这

    样会限制你尽量求取最高报酬、减低投资风险的能力。有些指数基金会

    规定至少要持有1年，而且不得在60天之内重新买进已赎回的部分。指

    数基金的另一大缺点，就是许多市场利基是指数基金没有触及的。相较

    之下，ETF不会限制卖出与买回的次数，而且目标遍及各式各样的投资

    利基。关键思维

    「债券在投资计划中扮演了举足轻重的角色，它提供了可靠的

    收入来源，并且能够分散投资于股票、大宗物资与房地产的风险，提升你的整体财务安全。如果购买债券，事先就能得知这段投资时

    间能够产生多少收入，这就是为何债券会被认为是安全的投资标

    的。另外，在自己选择投资债券的时候，对于这项投资的风险程度

    就已经能很有把握地控制，这是其有别于股票之处。然而，债券能

    带来的不只是安全与可预测的收入。在债市中，有些类别的报酬和

    股市的报酬相近，而且没有太大的风险。另外有些债券标的还会有

    美国政府的保证，收入绝对会超越通膨。大体而言，投资债券要比

    投资股票来得安全，年纪愈大，就应该配置愈多资金在债券或收入

    型投资标的上，像是银行定存或是货币基金。」

    杰若德＆马文

    「损失资金，比失去机会更令人懊悔。」

    肯尼思·沙芬

    「任何事都应该愈简单愈好，但是不能简单过了头。」

    爱因斯坦

    「人之生也直，罔之生也幸而免。」(雍也第六)

    孔子

    「我不清楚世界7大奇观是哪7大，但是我知道什么是第8奇观：复利。」

    巴伦·罗斯柴尔德 19世纪英国金融家

    「你当然可以把资金交由理财规划师、资金经理人、券商(最

    近几年通常称为投资顾问)或者是同一家公司的共同基金，然后放

    手让他们操作，一切听天由命。许多经理人长期以来的经营绩效优

    异，其中许多人甚至还会很认真地设法根据你个人的人生阶段、风

    险承受度与个性，设计出相符的投资组合。然而，虽然从靠着固定

    的经理人操作有明显的潜在优点，同时也有明显的缺点。」

    「举例而言，委由专业经理人操作，通常会使投资组合必须付

    出额外费用。在许多状况下，资金经理人或多或少都会带有利益冲

    突。金融机构鲜少会强调卖出的策略，因为华尔街提出的投资建议

    通常是买进而非卖出。至于口袋中资金较少的客户(所谓少，是对

    财富管理人员而言，但是对客户本身而言，这些钱可是相当多

    的)，他们的资金则比较难获得仔细监督、管理与应有关注。无论

    如何，如果你最后还是选择将管理自己投资标的的工作交给他人，就要慎选经理人，仔细查证他们为其它客户操作的长期绩效，尤其

    是他们在股市与景气下跌和上涨时，保护资金的能力。至少，一定

    要够了解到足以评估他们用来为你操作的策略。」

    杰若德马文胜过大盘4 每3个月，花1个钟头的时间重新调整

    投资组合 英文

    主要观念

    股票的涨跌是集体的，但是在整体市场之中，会有某些类股的企业

    表现优于其它类股，通常一次维持数年。每3个月就要检视不同类股的

    绩效，而且要确定自己的投资组合中纳入了目前绩效最佳的类股。只要

    每3个月花点功夫，持续让自己的投资组合尽量处于最佳配置，就能够

    大大提升整体的绩效。支持概念

    如果运用以上的必胜投资组合，那么要每3个月调整配置一次投资

    组合就很容易做到，只需要下列2个步骤：

    1. 检视自己现有的投资标的，将之和其它同类标的的绩效做比较。如

    果其它标的在上一季的绩效较佳，就卖掉现有标的，改买绩效较佳

    的标的。

    2. 另外还要检视各项标的的比重，并且调整配置。例如，如果海外标

    的的绩效良好，但目前已占全部财富的30%，那就要卖出一部分海

    外ETF，然后将收益配置于投资组合中的其它部位。这么做可以将

    风险控制于自己设定的范围内，并且让整体投资组合的配置保持平

    衡。

    许多投资人都误以为过去的绩效会重演，投资人往往会推断过去的

    趋势将继续维持到未来。这是非常危险的，金融业最常一再提醒的话就

    是：「过去绩效不保证未来的表现」。每3个月调整配置一次，就不会

    落入这个陷阱，而只会把过去的绩效当作参考。尤其，投资应抱持的观

    念是，优越绩效往往每次维持超过1季。找出目前绩效良好的基金并加

    以投资，就能充分运用两种观念的优点。关键思维

    「每季调整1次的ETF投资策略，简单到令人难以置信。在每

    一季的季末，去看看我们推荐的5档ETF上季报酬(包括配息)各

    是多少。从5档中挑出报酬最高的2档，将相同额度的资金配置于这

    两文件，然后持有到下一季。采取这种策略，就不必去预测何种投

    资风格会有最佳绩效，因为市场自然会告诉你。」

    杰若德马文

    「和谨守固定的投资组合相比，运用这种方式调整配置，能够

    让你搭上市场的大趋势，同时也提升投资的安全性，市场大趋势在

    某一段时间内会特别有利于特定投资风格，为期数月或数年之久。

    更重要的是，实施这种策略所花的交易成本实在不多。」

    「世界上没有任何区域能永保最佳绩效，而机敏的投资人应该

    注意最强势的区域，只要这个区域依然强势就继续持有。就以2007

    年来说，欧洲、亚洲与新兴市场的表现都比美国强势，所以应该大

    量配置在海外股。和广泛分散投资于各地区的海外股比起来，每季

    选择表现最强势的区域，就是更能获利的策略。」

    「我们来讨论，到底应该要采取主动的方式，选择最佳的

    ETF，还是以比较被动的方式长期持有共同基金，期待这些基金未

    来的表现能持续超越水平。不过心理上，我们还是喜欢每季选出最

    佳海外ETF的策略，因为实施这套策略的规则相当客观，而且跟着

    主流趋势走的动机也比较容易理解。」

    「此外，如果有一套方法能提升自己买到绩效最佳ETF的机会，并且避开绩效较差的ETF，自然会相当吸引人。不像是被动的

    策略，即使基金经理人的投资策略欲振乏力，却还是一成不变地配

    置于那文件共同基金。虽然我们所推荐的任何一档海外基金，表现

    比其它同类型基金都来得杰出，尤其是在2000年到2007年之间，但

    是我们没有人知道现今这个成功的管理团队会维持多久，也不知道

    下次景气变化时，这些基金的表现会如何。如果能下点功夫，运用

    这种策略去调整投资组合，让你的投资标的无论当时市场状况为

    何，都是最理想的选择，这种作法似乎更有吸引力。」

    杰若德马文

    「跑得快未必就会赢，力量大也未必能战胜，但是要赌就要押

    他们。」

    戴门·朗尼 恩美国幽默作家胜过大盘5 终其一生，不断重复上述循环 英文

    主要观念

    愈早开始采取行动去管理与增加个人资产净值，复利就有愈长的时

    间去发挥它神奇的功效。要将每年持续增加用来累积财富的资金，当成

    是自己的目标。即使每年能加入投资资金的金额并不多，仍然可以让资

    金成长的速度跳跃成长，关键就在于要持续实行目前作法，不要三心二

    意。要求自己做到，终其一生都要谨守能维持自己生活方式的储蓄与投

    资计划。支持概念

    想要满足自己年老时的财务需求，最好的办法就是一定能够满足需

    求的投资计划。光靠企业的退休基金或是指望政府照顾，是没有用的，企业和政府都有其它更重要的优先事项等着去处理。最好的办法是一切

    靠自己，建立起充裕的投资标的，以支应自己日后的生活所需。

    有鉴于此，可以采取下列务实作法，让自己的投资计划加速前进：

    1 养成完全以现金付款的好习惯，不要使用信用卡。

    这样可以阻挡自己购买不必要东西的冲动。如果都是以现金付款，不仅购物时会想得更清楚，而且可以避免刷卡购物时的16%至20%费用

    (以及迟缴金)。简单来说，这样你才会有更多钱用来投资，而这是一

    件好事。

    2 只要想买东西，就静下心来自问：「我要工作几小时，才能赚

    够钱来买这东西？」

    如果任何支出，都能以要工作多少小时才能赚到这笔钱去衡量，常

    常就会发现自己想买的东西并不值得拥有。

    3 愈早开始投资愈好，才能累积晚年所需的资金。

    让复利有机会发挥神奇力量的时间愈长愈好。要记得，生命中的优

    先事项会不断改变，除了生活所需之外，未来还有其它地方会用到钱，像是让子女受教育等。如果能够让家人都一起为将来的需要储蓄，避免

    不必要的借贷，并且订出购物的优先级，那么这种种努力都会让财富累

    积计划加速前进。4 了解自己的「神奇20」是多少钱。

    安全的投资标的大概会为所投资的资金带来5%的利息，因此你会

    需要的投资资金，总金额大约是在退休时保有现在生活方式所需的金额

    再乘以20。如果每年的通货膨胀率平均以2.5%来算，其实就得将投资

    资金再加倍，总金额来到理想年收入的40倍。要把这个当作努力的目

    标，并且经常和另一半讨论。

    5 早早开始，持续累积财富，并且谨守计划。

    不要因为任何事情让自己分心，要对抗诱人的广告与冲动购物。政

    府会开空头支票保证未来的一切将会更光明，而且你的房价也会飙高，所以不必担心。你的邻居整修房舍，也会要你跟着做。要忽视这所有的

    一切，全心累积足够的投资资金，让自己能够安渡晚年。等到日后有了

    钱再加进这些东西是很容易的，所以要将投资计划列为最优先。

    6 让子女也具备相同观念。

    如果为每一名年幼的子女开设一个退休账户，每年提拨4,000美元

    的收入，连续10年，之后就不再提拨，那么当小孩届退的时候，这笔用

    来教育他们准备退休基金的钱就会有200万美元以上。只要给复利长时

    间运作，就会产生令人难以置信的功用，要为了子女善用这一点。关键思维

    「大多数美国人都没有为自己的将来准备足够的积蓄，而且可

    能在多年过去之后，发现自己陷于严重的财务困境之中，如果当今

    退休金制度与医疗费用不断上涨的趋势继续下去，那更是如此。投

    入能让自己在后半辈子保持现有生活方式的储蓄与投资计划，就可

    以开始努力对抗自己人生中要面对的趋势。你的生活开支愈高，就

    需要投入愈多资金用来累积财富。愈早开始累积财富，资金就有愈

    多时间成长，等到自己必须从投资计划中取出钱来支应生活所需等

    花费时，也才会有愈多钱可用。」

    杰若德马文

    「现在的未来不像以前的那么好。」

    尤吉·贝拉 美国棒球名人堂球星

    「退休可能是你想要的，也可能不是。或许你会想一直工作下

    去，也可能会想做多年来一直想要去做的事。退休可能会让你离开

    事业圈，却也可能让你有时间和机会去体验并投入许多人生中的新

    领域。如果决定权在你，那不是太好了吗？」

    「如果你迈入老年，却没有充分的资源供应自己的生活开销和

    医疗费用，你可能会发现，当权者会以主动或被动的方式，想办法

    把你从这个星球抹去。别让这种事发生在你身上，而最好的防御方

    式，就是在经济上自给自足，而且要尽力又尽快达成。」

    「虽然投资计划在人生中愈早开始愈好，不过也常见很多夫妻或个人，往往在儿女(如果有的话)长大离家后，才开始认真累积

    财富。幸运的是，对大多数人而言，收入高峰通常也就是在这个时

    候。你可以一辈子努力工作，赚够你需要的钱以备不时之需，或

    者，你也可以努力计划并借由聪明主动的投资，为自己实现累积大

    笔金钱。」

    「只要能够在投资组合中善用低成本、分散投资的ETF，包括

    高收益债券ETF与投资级债券ETF，并且追随上一季的赢家，搭上

    市场大潮流的顺风车，应当就能实现你理想中的资金成长，而且在

    过程中还很有可能超越大多数散户、专业投资人和股市名师。必胜

    投资组合提供了均衡、进场与退场策略、分散投资、降低风险以及

    高获利潜力等优点，我们当然极力推荐。」

    杰若德马文MAIN IDEA中文

    Savvy, active investing works. Instead of handing all your money over

    to a financial planner or investing everything in a mutual fund and hoping for

    the best, you should become a self-sufficient investor. By doing this:

    Your investments will perform better-because there will be no

    management fees skimmed off the top.

    You'll avoid all the potential conflicts on interest any professional

    money manager has.

    You'll decide for yourself when it's safe to invest and when it's not-

    something managers never can do.

    You'll avoid the bias professional money managers have to look after

    their biggest clients first and everyone else later.

    In all, nothing can beat taking a hands-on approach to investing. The key

    to making it happen is actually quite simple:The strategies that you will learn have been well researched, and

    though they require little time to apply (often no more than one hour

    every three months), they are likely to increase your investment returns

    significantly while reducing risks associated with buying, hoping, and

    holding. If you are able to maintain investment discipline, to put a

    certain amount of time into the project, and to enjoy rather than fear

    decision making, you may well find your long-term growth of capital to

    be gratifying indeed. This is in addition to the satisfaction of knowing

    what you have personally accomplished for yourself and your family

    over the years involved.

    —Gerald Appel and Marvin AppelBeating the Market 1 Understand the Bedrocks of

    Investing 中文

    Main Idea

    Managing your own investment portfolio is not as difficult as the

    professional managers make it sound. They want to make it appear like this is

    a job for trained specialists. The reality is that as long as you keep your wits

    about you and are prepared to do some study, it's reasonable and realistic for

    anyone to manage their own investment portfolio.Supporting Ideas

    Rather than being considered as set in stone, a good investment port-

    folio is flexible, dynamic and responsive to changes in the general investment

    climate. For you to become a self-sufficient investor, there are just a few

    bedrock principles you need to know. These are:

    1 Diversification

    In simple terms, this means constructing your investment portfolio so

    your investments are spread across different parts of the economy rather than

    focused tightly in some specific market. By diversifying, you'll have a range

    of investments each with different risk-reward patterns. Ideally that will mean

    that regardless of what the broader economy is doing, at least one part of your

    portfolio will be performing well at all times. Diversification reduces your

    risks as an investor.

    It's possible to diversify your portfolio in a large number of different

    dimensions:

    Between stocks and bonds

    Between large company and small company stocks

    Between different types of bonds

    Between income-oriented equities and growth stocks

    Between stocks in different industries

    Into or out of commodities

    This last point, commodities, is of particular note. Some people invest incommodities like gold, oil, raw materials, food and agriculture as a way to

    offset high inflation. Commodities tend to rise in value during periods of high

    inflation or economic uncertainty. A small amount of commodity

    representation may make sense.

    2 Risk tolerance

    As a general rule of thumb, investments made for the purpose of

    creating a consistent income carry less risk than investments made in the

    stock market. Speculative or high-risk investments pay higher dividends

    precisely because there are more risks involved. Mutual funds can be either

    high risk or low risk depending on the type of fund and the securities it

    invests in.

    In order for you to succeed as an investor, you'll need to understand and

    allow for your personal risk tolerance. This will vary depending on the stage

    of life you are at:

    When young, you'll probably be prepared to accept more risk in the hope

    of generating a high rate of return. You'll reason that you have many

    productive years left to make up for any losses you may suffer.

    As time passes, you'll probably want to reduce your risk as your asset

    base grows.

    As you near retirement, the ability of your investment portfolio to

    generate a steady and safe income will become of paramount

    importance. You'll be reasonably risk averse by this time.

    3 BalanceInvestment portfolios need to be balanced-which is to say there needs

    to be some thought given to what proportion of your portfolio will be

    dedicated to:

    Generating an income (bond interest and dividends)

    Creating capital gains (stock and bond positions)

    So what are your goals in creating and managing your investment

    portfolio?These will seem reasonably obvious:

    As a starting point for creating your investment portfolio, most investors

    typically find they end up with this kind of balance:Key Thoughts

    Your primary goal as an investor is to achieve an amount of assets

    that you will require to meet life's expenses-throughout your life-but

    particularly later in life when work income comes to an end or is, at the

    least, reduced. You can achieve your goals by way of astute investing,which usually involves diversification, diversification, and more

    diversification and portfolio balance. Diversification will help reduce

    risk. You should, nonetheless, be prepared to rapidly exit positions that

    are not performing as you expect. As a general rule, the best losses are

    those that are taken quickly.

    Gerald Appel Marvin AppelBeating the Market 2 Get to Know the

    Components 中文

    Main Idea

    The basic building blocks of any portfolio are investments that you hope

    will appreciate in value over time and investments that will generate an

    ongoing income for as long as you own them. Stocks and bonds have

    provided wealth and income to long-term investors for generations and will

    be an important part of your portfolio as well. The journey from where you

    are right now financially to where you want to be in the future will require a

    knowledgeable guide, and with a lit bit of experience, you can become your

    own best guide.Supporting Ideas

    Stocks

    The stock market as a whole is usually broken down into seven or eight

    major sectors:

    1. The financial industry-insurance, banking, brokerage houses and related

    industries. The performance of this sector correlates with market indices

    like the Standard Poor's (S P) 500.

    2. Utilities-which tend to pay higher than average dividends and rise or fall

    in sync with energy prices.

    3. Real estate investment trusts (REITs)-which normally perform much the

    same as the financials.

    4. Energy-oil producers, drillers, shippers, refiners, coal producers-who

    tend to perform well when inflation is high or international tensions rise.

    5. Materials-industries associated with gold, silver, lumber, minerals and

    so forth. Again, this sector tends to do best when inflationary pressures

    rise.

    6. U.S. small capitalization companies-which can sometimes outperform

    their large capitalization counterparts.7. International equities-which can rise or fall at different times than the

    U.S. market.

    8. International small companies-which can perform better than their U.S.

    domestic counterparts when the U.S. dollar is losing value.

    One of the basic principles of managing your own investment portfolio

    is to periodically identify which sectors are strong and place the largest

    portion of your investments in those strongest areas. Alternatively, you might

    allocate all your stock market investments evenly across all eight sectors,giving you a blend that will perform quite well in all economic conditions.

    If you do start with an evenly balance portfolio across all eight sectors,you'll still need a rebalancing mechanism of some kind. One good strategy is

    to sell any position that has climbed to above 10% more than its asset

    allocation and buy any positions that have an asset value that has declined by

    10% or more from its original allocation. If you do this, you end up selling

    into strength rather than buying into strength which is what the general

    public is trying to do. You also buy into weakness, which often means you

    end up getting some pretty good deals before the wheel turns and sectors

    come back into fashion.

    When it comes to stocks, there are two smart ways to invest:

    Mutual funds are vehicles that allow investors to pool their money and

    hire professional managers. Different funds will have different

    objectives and different areas of investment focus. A No-load fund

    means there are no commissions payable when you buy or sell. By

    investing in a fund, you get an immediate portfolio of stock. Thatadvantage is offset by the fact that there will be management fees

    deducted from any gains you hopefully make. Some mutual funds are

    designated as index funds because they have a portfolio that is designed

    to mirror the action of specific market indices like the S P 500

    (tracking large U.S. companies) or the Russell 2000 (small U.S.

    companies). You can find the past performance of mutual funds online

    at:

    www.morningstar.com

    www.moneycentral.msn.com (click on Fund Research)

    Exchange traded funds (ETFs), which are listed mutual funds. ETFs

    don't have professional managers, but are designed to reflect well-

    known stock indices (like the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the

    Nasdaq Composite) or certain well-established investment styles (like

    high-dividend stocks, growth technology stocks, health sector

    investments, etc.) You can track the performance of ETFs online at:

    www.etfconnect.com

    www.price-data.com

    There are so many mutual funds, index funds and exchange traded funds

    available that it's easy to get caught up in all the detail and lose sight of the

    fact that these are different types of investment vehicles you can and should

    use to generate wealth. To cut through all the clouds of complexity, use two

    general rules of thumb when it comes to investing in the stock market:

    1 Diversify—buy and then maintain positions in mutual funds or ETFs

    that correlate with the big five basic areas:

    Large U.S. company stocksSmall U.S. company stocks

    Stocks in companies that own real estate like REITs

    Bond funds

    International funds

    2 Once every three months, rebalance your investment portfolio—by

    selecting from the best performing mutual funds or ETFs during the last

    quarter and holding them in your portfolio for the coming quarter. If you do

    this regularly and consistently, this will keep you on the right side of major

    market trends.

    Bonds

    Most investment programs tend to ignore bonds, but this is a potential

    problem. Bonds can play a vital role in your investment program because:

    Bonds can provide a dependable source of income.

    Bonds improve your financial stability by diversifying other investmentsyou may make in stocks, commodities or real estate.

    When you buy a bond, you know for certain what the income generated

    from this investment will be in advance. That allows you to make better

    plans.

    You have a high level of control over your risk level by selecting your

    bond investments.

    It's not unheard of for bonds to provide returns approaching those

    generated by the stock market with much less risk.

    Using bonds, you can get a U.S. government guarantee that your returns

    will exceed inflation. That's pretty impressive.

    To get up to speed with bonds, you'll first need to understand the

    language and terminology of bonds:

    A bond is a loan you (the investor) make to the borrower (called the

    issuer).

    When a company issues a new 1,000 bond, it specifies the interest rate

    it will pay. This is termed the coupon.

    During the term of the loan, you will receive interest at the coupon rate

    and then your original 1,000 back at the end of the loan. 1,000 is

    designated as the par value or face value.

    Bond prices are quoted in the financial press in points, where each

    point is worth 10. Thus, a quote of 100 indicates a bond price of

    1,000.

    The term of a bond is called the maturity. Bonds can be issued for any

    maturity from 90 days or less right through to 30 years or more. As a

    general rule of thumb, the shorter the bond's maturity, the safer it is.The key point about bonds is that they pay a fixed coupon irrespective of

    whatever else is happening in the financial marketplace. That means when

    interest rates rise, the value of existing bonds and bond mutual funds fall

    because money could be invested elsewhere at a better interest rate.

    Conversely, when interest rates fall, the returns generated from bonds can

    become much more valuable. This is what drives changes in the values of

    bonds in the marketplace.

    The two sources of potential gains from owning bonds are:

    1. The interest income you will receive-which generally gets paid in two

    six-monthly installments rather than one annual sum.

    2. The capital gain or loss-the difference between what you pay for a bond

    and its face value at maturity, which is usually 1,000.

    The overall investment return from these two factors is combined and is

    referred to as the yield to maturity. When the financial press says interest

    rates are going up, that means the yields to maturity on existing bonds and the

    coupon rate on newly issued bonds are both rising. Rising interest rates drive

    the prices of existing bonds lower while falling interest rates have the effect

    of driving the price of existing bonds higher.

    One way to offset or mitigate interest rate risk is to stagger the maturity

    dates of your bond investments.

    By setting up a staggered portfolio like this (referred to as a bond

    ladder), you'll be well positioned regardless of which way interest rates end

    up heading. As one-fifth of your bond investments will mature every twoyears, you can then re-invest the proceeds at the prevailing coupon at that

    time for 10-year bonds, which is usually the highest yield on offer at any

    particular time. Laddering means you don't have to project what the

    prevailing interest rate will be but you automatically take advantage of it

    every two years as part of your investment portfolio matures.

    Note also that bonds are often classified as to whether or not they are

    investment-grade. Investment-grade bonds have higher credit ratings than

    other bonds and a very low risk of defaulting. Most of the U.S. bond market

    revolves around bonds that are investment-grade. The exception are those

    issued by lenders who have a higher credit risk. These bonds typically pay a

    higher yield to offset those higher risks and are often referred to as junk

    bonds or simply as high yield bonds.

    In addition to junk bonds, which have always attracted loads of attention

    and comment, there are also other types of bonds that are available:

    High yield bond funds-which invest in a range of below-investment-

    grade bonds. Some of these will end up defaulting, but those that remain

    in business and meet their obligations can pay such high yields that the

    entire fund generates better than average returns for investors.

    Floating rate bank-loan bond funds-bonds backed by adjustable rate

    loans banks have made to businesses. The fact that banks can raise or

    lower their interest rates means there isn't the interest rate risk normally

    associated with bonds. In fact, if interest rates rise, floating rate bond

    funds are worth more because their interest income rises. There is also

    less interest risk with these bond types.

    Inflation-proof bonds-formally known as Treasury Inflation-ProtectedSecurities (TIPS). These U.S. Treasury-issued bonds have their interest

    rates reset every six months to be equal to the current inflation rate plus

    a fixed amount. The fixed component of the income is paid as coupon

    payments every six months, while the bond's principal amount starts at

    1,000 and is then adjusted for the amount of inflation since issue. This

    means your coupon payments rise with inflation.

    Tax-exempt bonds-bonds issued by state or local governments that pay

    interest that will not be subject to federal income tax and in some

    circumstances state income tax either. This will be an attractive option

    for investors in a high tax bracket, although the benefits will be less for

    those who are in lower tax brackets.Key Thoughts

    Stocks have a long history of growth that has made them among

    the very best long-term investments. For individual investors not able or

    inclined to spend a lot of time researching individual companies, which

    is the case for most people, the diversification and potentially low

    transaction costs of well-chosen mutual funds and exchange traded

    funds make these the preferred vehicles to use in order to participate in

    the stock market.

    Making money is not about feeling smart. Making money is about

    disciplined portfolio management, the ability to invest against the

    crowd, and the ability to retain emotional and portfolio balance.

    The greatest mistake you can make in the stock market is to take a

    larger loss than you can afford!If you take a 50% loss in your asset base,you will need to make 100% on your remaining capital just to get even.

    For every 25% you lose, you will need to make 33% to get even. Unless

    you are relatively early in the period in which you are accumulating

    capital, and absolutely able and willing to accept the risks involved, do

    not invest without carefully assessing the impact of potential losses.

    Gerald Appel Marvin AppelBeating the Market 3 Set up Your Own Definitive

    Winning Investment Portfolio 中文

    Main Idea

    Once you know the basics, you can then decide for yourself what to

    include in your investment portfolio and what to leave out. A good portfolio

    will always have these key characteristics:

    It will be balanced.

    You will have clear-cut entry and exit strategies in place.

    Your risks will be reduced to a manageable level.

    Your portfolio will have enhanced profit potential.Supporting Ideas

    As a starting point for discussing a definitive portfolio, consider

    something like this as a way to structure your investments:To take each of these sections in turn:International stocks typically provide the greatest rate of return, but the

    risks are also higher. By placing 25% of your stock market investment capital

    into an international ETF and 75% into U.S. domestic ETFs, you get the

    optimum balance between risk and return.

    The three major international ETFs you should consider are:

    iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM)

    iShares MSCI Japan Index (EWJ)

    iShares Europe 350 Index Fund (IEV)

    Select whichever one of these three had the best returns in the past

    quarter and put 18. 75% of your investment capital into this ETF as the

    starting point for your definitive portfolio.

    With regards to selecting a U.S. Domestic ETF, look at five ETFs that

    cover the five major investment styles:

    iShares S P 600 Value Index (IJS)-small-cap value

    iShares S P 600 growth Index ETF (IJT)-small-cap growthiShares Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD)-large-cap value

    iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF)-large-cap growth

    iShares MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EFA)-large-cap international

    Again, evaluate the performance of all these ETFs over the past three

    months and select the two that have gained the most (or lost the least if that is

    the current state of the market) . Each of the two ETFs you select should then

    represent 28.125% of your total portfolio.

    For the bond component of your portfolio, you're looking to make two

    investments-one in an investment-grade bond ETF and the other in a high-

    yield bond ETF.

    For your investment-grade portfolio, look at the relative performance of

    low-expense total bond market index funds:

    iShares Lehman Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)

    Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund (VBMFX)

    To find suitable high-yield bond funds, speak with your brokeragehouse. They will have a number of possibilities for you to consider. Just

    make sure you select a no-load fund with low expense ratios and good long-

    term performance.

    There are all kinds of Internet delivered resources you can take

    advantage of as an investor. These resources include:

    MSN Money—www.moneycentral.msn.com

    If you go to the investing section of this Website, you can track ETF and

    mutual find prices for the beginning and end of each quarter.

    he iShares Website—www.ishares.com

    Here you can find the distribution history and performance charts for all

    ETFs.

    Yahoo Finance—www.finance.yahoo.com

    From this site, you can download into a spreadsheet data on all ETFs

    and stocks for any dates you specify. You can also specify that the data

    should be adjusted to reflect dividend and share splits automatically.

    ETF Connect—www.etfconnect.com

    Contains pricing data and information about closed-end mutual funds

    and index ETFs.

    Price-Data—www.price-data.com

    A subscription service that offers current prices and symbols of all listedETFs.

    XTF—www.xtf.com

    Excellent resource Website for rating ETFs and getting data on their

    performance histories.

    Dr. Schiller's Website—www.irrationalexuberance.com

    Contains historical stock market data as well as inflation and housing

    price data in downloadable format.

    The key characteristics of the definitive investment portfolio are:

    The definitive portfolio is balanced.

    You're not entrusting your entire financial security to one specific stock

    or one narrow area of investment. Instead, you're building a broad base of

    investments in a number of different markets. The 7525 split between

    positioning your capital for stock-market generated growth and bond-market

    generated income has also proven to be the optimum mix in back testing of

    historical data.

    ■The definitive portfolio has clear-cut entry and exit strategies.

    You can start your investment program at any point through buying

    shares in exchange traded funds. There are no front-end or backend

    commissions or fees to be paid. ETFs have no or very small management

    expenses. When you buy or sell a share in an ETF, you will be charged a

    commission the same as if you buy and sell shares in a company. Mostbrokerages, however, are prepared to offer you an annual wrap fee that you

    pay once and then can make as many trades as you like throughout the year

    without any additional fees being incurred. Your exit strategy is always the

    same-sell whenever the value of any of your investments rises or falls by 10

    percent.

    ■The definitive portfolio reduces risks to a manageable level.

    The fact that an ETF represents a well-balanced portfolio significantly

    reduces your risks. You aren't required to try and pick individual stocks that

    will appreciate faster than others. ETFs provide no active management, but

    their composition reflects well-known stock market indices or specified

    investment styles. By spreading your investment over a large number of

    stocks, risk is evened out and minimized as much as possible.

    ■The definitive portfolio has enhanced profit potential.

    Stocks have provided wealth to long-term investors for many

    generations. During the 80 year period from 1926 to 2006, the overall value

    of the stock market has grown by 10% per year-outpacing inflation by 7%

    annually on average. The growth in value of the stock market has also

    outstripped real estate by a substantial margin. Admittedly, individual years

    are going to be much more up or down, but the long-term profit potential of

    investing in the stock market is well established. Investing in the market as a

    whole rather than in individual stocks also makes sense because it's

    impossible to forecast how any individual stock will do with any degree of

    certainty.Note that one alternative to investing in ETFs is to invest in index funds

    instead. Index funds are mutual funds with portfolios that mirror the action of

    specific market indexes. They don't require any management or research to

    maintain because their composition is obvious. This means their costs are

    very low, especially in comparison to actively managed mutual funds.

    Index funds are an excellent option for investors looking for a low cost way

    to put their money to work in the stock market. The disadvantage of index

    funds is that most limit the frequency with which you can sell and then

    repurchase shares. This can hamper your ability to get the highest possible

    returns and minimize your investment risk. Some index funds impose a one-

    year minimum holding period and a restriction on repurchasing shares within

    60 days of a redemption. The other main disadvantage of index funds is that

    there are many market niches for which no index funds are available.

    Exchange traded funds, by contrast, have no restrictions on sale and

    repurchase and offer a whole host of different investment niches.Key Thoughts

    Bonds can play an important role in your investment program by

    providing a dependable source of income, and can improve your overall

    financial safety by diversifying your other investments in stocks,commodities and real estate. When you buy a bond, you know in

    advance what that income will be for the life of your investment, which

    is why bonds are considered to be safe investments. Also, unlike the

    case with stocks, you have a high degree of control over the level of risk

    you assume at the time you select your bond investments. However,there is more to bonds than just safety and predictable income. There are

    areas of the bond market that have provided returns approaching those

    of the stock market with relatively modest risk. Other bond investments

    offer a U.S. government guarantee of income that exceeds inflation. In

    general, bond investments are safer than stock investments, and the

    older you are, the more you should put into bonds or other income

    producing investments such as bank certificates of deposit or money

    market funds.

    Gerald Appel Marvin Appel

    Loss of capital is a far more regrettable alternative than loss of

    opportunity.

    Kenneth Safain

    Everything should be as simple as possible, but not simpler.Albert Einstein

    Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.

    Confucius

    I don't know what the seven wonders of the world are, but I do

    know the eighth: compound interest.

    Baron Rothschild

    It is, of course, possible to hand over all your assets to a financial

    planner or to a money manager or to a stock broker (in recent years

    referred to as an investment consultant) or to a mutual fund family, to

    step aside, and hope for the best. Many managers have had excellent

    long-term performance records, and some will even make a reasonably

    serious attempt to match the portfolios they create for you to your own

    personal life situation, risk tolerances and temperament. However,although there are definite potential benefits that can accrue from

    retaining professional managers, there are also some definite

    disadvantages.

    For one, the use of professional managers usually involves

    additional expenses for your investment portfolio. In many cases,professional money managers bring with them potential conflicts of

    interest in one form or another. Financial institutions rarely emphasize

    selling strategies. Wall Street emphasizes buying rather than selling

    recommendations. The odds are also much less that clients with

    relatively small amounts of capital-small to wealth managers, that is, but

    significant to these clients-will receive careful supervision, monitoringand general attention. In any event, if you ultimately choose to delegate

    the task of managing your investments to others, choose your managers

    with care, taking care to verify their actual long-term performance with

    other accounts, and particularly their ability to protect assets during poor

    as well as favorable general stock market and economic climates. At the

    very least, learn enough to be able to evaluate the strategies that are

    being employed on your behalf.

    Gerald Appel Marvin AppelBeating the Market 4 Every Three Months, Take

    an Hour to Rebalance Your Portfolio 中文

    Main Idea

    Stocks rise and fall as a group, but different clusters of companies within

    the broader market perform better than others, often for years at a time. Every

    three months, you need to look at the performance of various groups and

    make sure your own portfolio includes those that are performing best at the

    present time. Just by consistently ensuring your portfolio is positioned as well

    as it can be with a modest amount of effort every three months, you can

    significantly enhance its overall performance.Supporting Ideas

    When you use the definitive investment portfolio approach, rebalancing

    your portfolio every three months becomes relatively simple to achieve. It

    requires only two steps:

    1. You look at each of your current investments and see how they have

    fared in comparison with their peer group alternatives. If you find that

    one of those alternative investments performed better in the last quarter,you sell your current investment and buy the better performing

    alternative.

    2. You also look at the respective weightings of your investments and

    rebalance here as well. If, for example, your international investments

    have performed so well that they now represent 30% of your total

    wealth, you would sell part of your international ETF investment and

    put the proceeds into other parts of your portfolio. This keeps all your

    risks at the levels you have selected and the overall balance of your

    portfolio intact.

    Many investors make the mistake of always assuming past performance

    will repeat itself. It's easy for investors to extrapolate trends of the past well

    into the future in this way. This is dangerous. One of the most frequently

    repeated pieces of advice in the financial industry is: Past results do not

    guarantee future performance. By rebalancing every three months, you're

    not falling into this trap. Instead, you're looking to past performance for

    guidance only. In particular, you're investing in the concept that superior

    performance generally tends to last more than one quarter at a time. Byidentifying which funds are currently performing well and investing there,you're trying to get the best of both worlds.Key Thoughts

    The quarterly ETF strategy is almost too simple to be believed: At

    the end of every calendar quarter, find the quarterly return (including

    dividends) for each of the five recommended ETFs. Place equal amounts

    of capital into the two out of these five with the highest returns and hold

    for the coming quarter. With this strategy, you don't have to predict

    which investment style will perform best-the market will tell you.

    Gerald Appel Marvin Appel

    Using this method would have kept you on the right side of major

    market trends that have favored particular investment styles for months

    or years at a time and would have increased the safety of your

    investments as well, compared to holding a fixed portfolio all the time.

    Moreover, the transaction costs of implementing this type of strategy

    have been modest.

    There is no part of the world that can be guaranteed to perform the

    best. Rather, the astute investor should look for the strongest areas and

    hold those for as long as they continue to be strong. As of 2007, Europe,Asia and emerging markets are all stronger than the U.S., so you should

    maintain significant exposure to foreign stocks. Selecting the strongest

    region every quarter has been a more profitable strategy than

    diversifying broadly among international stocks.

    We will comment on whether you should adopt the active

    approach of selecting the best ETF, or the more passive approach ofholding mutual funds for the long term, hoping that they will continue to

    outperform their benchmarks in the future. Philosophically, we prefer

    the strategy of selecting the best international ETF each quarter because

    the rules to implement the strategy are objective and the motivation of

    following the major prevailing trend is easy to understand.

    Moreover, it is appealing to have a system to increase your

    exposure to the ETF that is performing best and to avoid any exposure to

    the weaker ones, as opposed to the passive strategy of maintaining a

    fixed allocation to the mutual fund even when its manager's investment

    strategies may be lagging. Although any international funds we have

    recommended have done very well compared to their peers, especially

    from 2000 to 2007, none of us knows how long the currently successful

    management teams will remain in place, or how the funds will fare the

    next time the market climate changes. If you can spare the effort, it

    seems more attractive to utilize a strategy that adjusts your portfolio so

    that your investments are in the optimal selections for whatever the

    market may be doing at the time.

    Gerald Appel Marvin Appel

    The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but

    that's the way to bet.

    Damon RunyonBeating the Market 5 Repeat this Cycle over and

    over for Life 中文

    Main Idea

    The earlier you start taking proactive action to manage and grow your

    net worth, the longer there is for compound interest to work its magic. Make

    it your goal to consistently add to your basic wealth accumulation assets

    every year. Adding even relatively moderate amounts to your capital base

    every year can accelerate the growth of your capital by leaps and bounds. The

    key is to stay consistent in what you're doing and not get sidetracked.

    Commit yourself to staying with a savings and investment plan that will

    maintain your lifestyle for as long as you live.Supporting Ideas

    When it comes to providing for your financial needs as you get older,the best approach is always to have an investment program in place that will

    provide for your needs. There's no use relying on a corporate pension fund or

    the government to take care of you-they will always have other priorities that

    are more important. The best idea is for you to take matters into your own

    hands and build up enough investments to support yourself for the rest of

    your life.

    With that in mind, there are a few practical things you can do to

    supercharge your own investment program:

    1 Get into the habit of paying for everything with cash rather than by

    credit card.

    This will stop all those impulse purchases of stuff you never use

    anyway. If you always pay by cash, not only will you make better purchase

    decisions but you'll avoid the 16%-20% (plus late charges) cost of making

    purchases through credit cards. In simple terms, you'll have more money to

    invest-which is good.

    2 Whenever you think about buying something, pause and ask

    yourself: How many hours will I need to work to earn enough money to buy

    this?

    If you measure all expenditure options in terms of how long it will take

    you to make that much money, you'll often find that what you're thinkingabout buying isn't worth it.

    3 Start investing as early as possible in accumulating the assets you

    will need during your later years.

    The more time you can give compound interest an opportunity to work

    its magic, the better. Remember, your priorities are going to vary throughout

    your life. You'll need money in the future not only to live on but also to do

    things like provide for your children's education. If you can involve all your

    family in saving for future needs, avoiding unnecessary debt and prioritizing

    their purchases, all of these efforts will serve to accelerate your accumulation

    program.

    4 Know your magic twenty number.

    Realistically, safe investments will pay about 5% interest on any capital

    invested. Therefore, you'll need a pool of investment capital that will be

    about twenty times the amount of income you require to maintain your

    present lifestyle during retirement. And if inflation averages 2.5% a year,you'll actually need to double your pool of investment capital to forty times

    the amount of annual income you want to generate. Set that as the goal you

    work towards and discuss this with your spouse often.

    5 Start early, accumulate consistently and stay with the plan.

    Don't let anything sidetrack you. You'll be up against alluring

    advertising programs and impulse purchases. There will be subtle promises

    from the government that things will get better in the future and the value of

    your house will soar, so there's no need to worry. Your neighbors willrenovate and put pressure on you to do the same. Ignore all of that. Stay

    focused on accumulating enough investment capital to see you through the

    rest of your life. It's very easy to add all this other stuff later on, so make your

    investment program priority number one.

    6 Get your children thinking the same way.

    If you were to open up an IRA account for each of your young children

    into which you contribute 4,000 of income for ten years and then make no

    further contributions whatsoever, by the time that child is ready to retire they

    would have a 2 million or more head start on their own retirement funding.

    Compound interest can achieve some incredible feats when left long periods

    to work with. Use this to your children's advantage.Key Thoughts

    Most Americans are not saving nearly enough for the future, and

    are likely to find themselves in deep financial trouble as the years move

    along, particularly if current trends in pension financing and increases in

    medical costs continue. You can dig in and combat these trends in your

    own lives by committing yourself to savings and investment plans

    designed to maintain your lifestyle as your life moves along. The more

    expensive your lifestyle, the more assets you will need to place into your

    accumulation fund. The earlier you start your accumulation process, the

    longer you can allow your assets to grow, and the larger the amounts

    you will have available at those times when you will have to draw from

    your investment plan for living and other expenses.

    Gerald Appel Marvin Appel

    The future isn't what it used to be.

    Yogi Berra

    Retirement may be to your liking. It may not. You may want to

    continue working for as long as you can. You may prefer to be free to do

    many of the things you have wished for so many years to do. Retirement

    may take you out of the business loop, but it may also provide the time

    and opportunity to allow you to sample and become involved with many

    new areas of life. Wouldn't it really be best if the choice was yours?

    If you are moving into your senior years without ample resourcesto provide for your own living expenses and for your own medical

    expenses, you may find in one way or another that the powers that be

    may be inclined, actively or by passive neglect, to blow you right off the

    planet. Don't let them do that to you. Your best defense is to become as

    self-sufficient, economically, as you can and as soon as you can.

    Although investment programs are best initiated as early in life as

    possible, it is not surprising that for many couples and individuals,serious capital accumulation tends to start only after the children, if any,have left the house. Fortunately, for most people, peak earnings often

    take place at this time. You can work hard throughout your life to make

    the money you need to keep up with life's changing needs. Or you can

    try to plan and carry through your affairs so that you accumulate an

    amount of money along the way that, by savvy active investing, you

    make work for you!

    Simply by utilizing low-cost, well-diversified ETFs, including

    both high yield and investment-grade bonds in your portfolio, and

    staying on the right side of major market trends simply by following last

    quarter's winners, you should be able to achieve the capital growth you

    desire and, in the process, probably outperform most individual and

    professional investors and market gurus. The Definitive Portfolio

    provides balance, entry and exit strategies, diversification, risk

    reduction, and enhanced profit potential. It does have our serious

    endorsement.

    Gerald Appel Marvin Appel ......