结核治疗市场预计将达到7亿美元，但Wto条约对新药研发提出置
NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - In a bid to promote industry interest in tuberculosis (TB) drugs, non-profit group the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development released on Thursday a report estimating that the market for drugs combatting the disease will approach $700 million by 2010.
And while this report appears to provide an incentive to keep on producing existing TB medicines, a World Trade Organization (WTO) decision this week that seemingly opened the door for poor nations to skirt drug patent laws, raises questions as to whether companies will bother to develop new treatments.
TB infects approximately 8 million people each year, roughly 80% of whom live in poor countries that often cannot afford to pay the high prices of prescription medicines. Experts have noted that the last innovative medicine for treating TB was developed more than 30 years ago, and critics of the drug industry say that it has spent little time and money in recent decades pursuing newer treatments for diseases that mostly impact the developing world. Instead, they charge, the drug industry has chosen to focus on lifestyle treatments for such conditions as baldness and impotence that concern wealthier nations.
Dr. Giorgio Roscigno, director of strategic development at the Global Alliance, told Reuters Health that the group conducted an analysis of epidemiologic trends, which indicate that a TB increase is likely to mostly occur in Africa and Asia "mainly due to the co-infection with HIV."
Based on this analysis, and keeping current TB drug prices static, the Global Alliance estimates that the current $450 million global market for TB drugs will increase to roughly $670 million over the next eight years, he said.
Although this projection somewhat allays fears over a dwindling market potential for existing TB drugs--the report assumes that between $300 million and $375 million would be spent on generics currently used--it is unclear how accurate the Global Alliance's estimated market potential for new TB drugs really is.
In its report, the Global Alliance said that the potential of a new TB drug, one that reduces the treatment course from six months to less than two months, has the capacity to capture between $325 million and $400 million of the $700 million market.
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And while this report appears to provide an incentive to keep on producing existing TB medicines, a World Trade Organization (WTO) decision this week that seemingly opened the door for poor nations to skirt drug patent laws, raises questions as to whether companies will bother to develop new treatments.
TB infects approximately 8 million people each year, roughly 80% of whom live in poor countries that often cannot afford to pay the high prices of prescription medicines. Experts have noted that the last innovative medicine for treating TB was developed more than 30 years ago, and critics of the drug industry say that it has spent little time and money in recent decades pursuing newer treatments for diseases that mostly impact the developing world. Instead, they charge, the drug industry has chosen to focus on lifestyle treatments for such conditions as baldness and impotence that concern wealthier nations.
Dr. Giorgio Roscigno, director of strategic development at the Global Alliance, told Reuters Health that the group conducted an analysis of epidemiologic trends, which indicate that a TB increase is likely to mostly occur in Africa and Asia "mainly due to the co-infection with HIV."
Based on this analysis, and keeping current TB drug prices static, the Global Alliance estimates that the current $450 million global market for TB drugs will increase to roughly $670 million over the next eight years, he said.
Although this projection somewhat allays fears over a dwindling market potential for existing TB drugs--the report assumes that between $300 million and $375 million would be spent on generics currently used--it is unclear how accurate the Global Alliance's estimated market potential for new TB drugs really is.
In its report, the Global Alliance said that the potential of a new TB drug, one that reduces the treatment course from six months to less than two months, has the capacity to capture between $325 million and $400 million of the $700 million market.
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